Saturday, March 17

The first round is over

Well, you've probably already heard the vast amounts of analysis, prophecies, and predictions for this damn tournament. And honestly, even though I root heavily for a few teams, I mostly just enjoy watching any of this.

However, up until this year I never really realized just how tough it is for a weak team like Penn to beat a tougher team, like Texas A&M. Now, there was never any doubt in my mind that A&M would win the game, and handily. I didn't realize that they literally had no chance of winning.

Now, there's a difference here between Penn, and a team like Niagra. Niagra has dudes who are athletic, but not quite athletic enough to play for a better school. Penn has dudes who are smart, but would never have a shot at playing anywhere but in the Ivy League. So when you match a 6'9" 200 pound guy against a 7' 275 pound guy, the bigger one is gonna win about 90 times out of 100. Repeat this for 40 minutes, and you have the result.

Basically the point here is this. It's always a "miracle," or "hugest upset ever" when games like this happen. I contend that it is NEVER strictly the result of phenomenal play from the underdog team, and that it almost has to be the result of atrocious play for the favorite. College basketball is unique in this, I believe. In almost every major sport, there is always a chance for victory on either side. And I'm not talking about a simple underdog vs favorite here, I mean a team that is clearly and completely dominated in every possible way.

I really don't have a point here. I was trying to put into words the sheer ridiculousness of a matchup such as Penn and A&M. I honestly think that there is less than a 5% chance of the underdog ever winning in situations like these, and when they do, it is for reasons other than their own performance. That said, my other squad, rock chalk jayhawk, is going to win it all, and I couldn't be happier.

1 comment:

zstin said...

Yes, it is almost always a combination of the pure insanity/statistical anomaly of 3 pt. lights out shooting by the underdog combined with poor play of the overdog resulting from underestimation of the opponent, shock that they're not rolling over and playing dead, confusion with a 1-3-1 zone they haven't seen before, a sense of entitlement, you name it. I don't know if this is unique in ncaabb, however.